Ace/paint rich deck

[erdman]

Hi Eastbay:

I use SNGPowerTools to analyze short stack shoving situations in multi-table tournaments.

Barry Greenstein has recently posted some analysis that shows that when players fold, the deck becomes increasingly rich in Aces (and paint, I would assume). I would never have thought that this could be material, but his analysis has me wondering. See these links:

http://barrygreenstein.com/aces.txt
http://barrygreenstein.com/out-aces.htm
http://pokerroad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3936

Using his assumptions, he found that when receiving a walk (ie 8 folded non-playable hands), the BB is likely to have AA 1 in 133 times, vs the 1/221 in a random deal.

While his analysis focused just on AA, the broader consequences are two-fold. In an Ace-rich deck, it is not only more likely that someone behind will have an Ace-Paint, but also I would expect that the Ace-Paint would get a more favorable flop, and the overall equity of suited connectors and small pairs (which consititute portions of typical shoving ranges) would decline.

My questions for you are:

(1) Have you done any analyses that examine the materiality of a handful of folded non-playable hands on either or both the probability of being called, and the subsequent equities?

(2) If these are material issues, do you plan to include analytical functionality in this regard in Power Tools for the benefit of MTT users?

Thanks,

tce

[eastbay]

Hi Eastbay:

I use SNGPowerTools to analyze short stack shoving situations in multi-table tournaments.

Barry Greenstein has recently posted some analysis that shows that when players fold, the deck becomes increasingly rich in Aces (and paint, I would assume). I would never have thought that this could be material, but his analysis has me wondering. See these links:

http://barrygreenstein.com/aces.txt
http://barrygreenstein.com/out-aces.htm
http://pokerroad.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3936

Using his assumptions, he found that when receiving a walk (ie 8 folded non-playable hands), the BB is likely to have AA 1 in 133 times, vs the 1/221 in a random deal.

While his analysis focused just on AA, the broader consequences are two-fold. In an Ace-rich deck, it is not only more likely that someone behind will have an Ace-Paint, but also I would expect that the Ace-Paint would get a more favorable flop, and the overall equity of suited connectors and small pairs (which consititute portions of typical shoving ranges) would decline.

My questions for you are:

(1) Have you done any analyses that examine the materiality of a handful of folded non-playable hands on either or both the probability of being called, and the subsequent equities?

(2) If these are material issues, do you plan to include analytical functionality in this regard in Power Tools for the benefit of MTT users?

Thanks,

tce

tce,

I have not actually ever investigated this mathematically although I have wanted to for a long time. I have discussed it with people who claimed they had, and they insisted that the effects are so small as to be ignored. Intuitively I was not so sure about that. I could swear when a full table folds around to me in the small blind, I get picked off by strong hands more often that it seems I should were the BB's hand truly random. Of course, this could just be some kind of psychological perception thing, but Barry may be showing here that it isn't necessarily only perception.

If I manage to get some research done on this and the results are interesting, I would try to incorporate it into SnGPT in some way. But a lot of questions remain about exactly how.

Thanks,
eastbay

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